USD/MXN Price Analysis: Choppy short term, bearish longer-term


  • The bias is to the downside according to the longer-term charts. 
  • USD/MXN bears are looking for a break of daily support structure.

The Mexican peso has been confined to a relatively narrow range from the late June business and all of July so far. This 

USD/MXN, would, therefore, be expected to break out of this lull in due course and the following illustrates a bearish bias from a monthly and weekly perspective. 

Monthly chart, USD/MXN

The monthly chart shows that the price broke support at the end of 2020 which opens the risk of a continuation to the downside this year.

Since doing so, the price has corrected all the way to a 61.8% Fibo at the March highs of 21.6353.

The price was subsequently rejected and the correction stalled; This in itself is bearish.

Given the combination of all this, the bias is to the downside on the monthly charts. 

Weekly chart, USD/MXN

Additionally, from the weekly perspective, the bias is also bearish according to the lower weekly close 19.7458 following the lower weekly highs of 20.7138. 

There has been a correction to the 38.2% Fibo that has a confluence of the 21-week EMA and resistance area between April and year to date business.

The correction would, therefore, be expected to stall and lead to a downside continuation. 

However, from a daily perspective, bears will need to wait for a bearish structure for a high probability set up to the downside.

For now, the market remains bounded by support and resistance with no bias either way:

Daily chart, USD/MXN

The above illustrates the potential for the price to break the dynamic trendline support followed by price action forming a bearish structure to the downside and a subsequent break of the horizontal support structure. 

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