It has been a while since I looked at this pair from a long term perspective but the temptation in the present contraction in the market can not be resisted as I identify a trading opportunity building up for an explosion!
The British pound rallied from the Demand zone during the course of the last two weeks but since the 9th of July 2021, I have noticed that the buyers appear to be struggling to break above Key level @ Y153.200 area to confirm rally continuation. The appearance of a shooting star on the last trading day (Friday, 30th July 2021) expresses another sharp rejection of this level with a potential to transform into a Head and Shoulder pattern thereby signalling a Bearish perspective to this pair for me in the coming week(s).
It is worthy to note that there is a general notion that the Japanese Yen is still considered to be a “safety currency”. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish )
Structure: Trendline | Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (Head & Shoulder)
Observation: i. Since mid-March 2021, we have witnessed a surge in the value of the Pound over the Yen which hit a peak of Y156.200 after which the price continued to find lower lows.
ii. Multiple rejections of Key level @ Y153.200 gives further significance to the strength of sellers at this juncture in the market.
iii. Head and Shoulder: A baseline with three peaks (the outside two is expected to be close in height and the middle is highest). The completion of this pattern will signal with a degree of accuracy that the prevailing uptrend is nearing its end.
iv. Even as we await completion of Head & Shoulder, selling potentials exist below the Key level @ Y153.200 with potential to add position at Breakdown/retest of Y152.000 level.
v. The completion of a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal is confirmed as soon as the price breaks down the Neckline @ Y149.000 ( Demand zone ) – another window to add a position.
vi. CAUTION: Considering the Bullish perspective from a long term scale, we might see price do a correction into 61.8/ 78.6% retracement of Impulse Leg (see weekly chart) to incite rally continuation. However, should price breakout/reset Key level @ Y153.200 and Bearish Trendline our perspective shall shift to a rally continuation… Trade consciously!😊
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 500 pips.
Potential Duration: 10 to 20days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.